2026 job market: Stable but stuck

Signal Summary: Indeed predicts hiring will flatline in 2026 while Glassdoor says "forever layoffs" are killing morale. Meanwhile, global staffing inches toward modest growth by 2030 (assuming anyone's still standing). Plus, when LinkedIn stalking becomes client policy.

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^{P.S. I draw all images with an iPad Pro, Apple Pencil, and Procreate.}

HERE’S WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK ↓

SIGNAL 1
2026 hiring forecast: Not great, not terrible

The reality: Indeed's crystal ball says 2026 will be aggressively mediocre.

• Job openings stabilize between 6.8-7.4 million (basically where we are now)

• Unemployment creeps to 4.1-4.8% (higher, but not panic-inducing)

• GDP growth limps along at 1.8% (better than a recession, worse than exciting)

• Healthcare continues carrying the entire job market on its back

The disconnect: Economy's growing, but nobody's hiring. Classic "low-hire, low-fire" purgatory where employers are too nervous to expand but not desperate enough to slash headcount.

Signal → Strategy: Target healthcare staffing - it's the only sector showing consistent growth while everyone else treads water.

Go deeper: Indeed's 2026 US Jobs & Hiring Trends Report

SIGNAL 2
"Forever layoffs" are the new normal

Breaking: Glassdoor coined a term for what everyone's experiencing but nobody's discussing: "forever layoffs."

• Small layoffs under 50 people now represent 51% of cuts, up from 38% a decade ago

• Worker mentions of "misalignment" with leadership jumped 149% year-over-year

• Trust in senior leadership plummeted below pandemic levels

• Remote workers getting passed over for promotions (the slow-mo RTO nobody admits is happening)

What's really happening: Companies discovered they can trim headcount without headlines by doing regular mini-purges instead of mass layoffs. Employees notice anyway: they're just taking on dead coworkers' work wondering if they're next.

Signal → Strategy: Position contract staffing as the antidote to forever layoff anxiety. Pitch 6-12 month "try before you commit" arrangements that let companies scale without the morale damage of continuous terminations.

Go deeper: Glassdoor's Worklife Trends 2026

SIGNAL 3
Global staffing growth: Underwhelming but alive

The forecast: SIA predicts US staffing will limp to 10% cumulative growth by 2030.

• US contracts 3% in 2025, then "modest rebound" (translation: barely alive)

• 10% cumulative growth through 2030 edges out France (9%) and UK (9%)

• China and India smoking everyone at 78% and 75% growth respectively

• US remains world's largest staffing market at $184 billion, but growth's anemic

The disconnect: America's mature staffing market is basically flatlining while Asia's expanding economies are hiring like there's no tomorrow. Meanwhile, your competitors are still pretending 2018's glory days are coming back.

Signal → Strategy: Launch nearshore partnerships in Latin America or offshore operations in Asia-Pacific now. The math's brutal, 10% US growth over five years means you're fighting for scraps while missing markets growing 7-8x faster.

Go deeper: SIA Global Staffing Market Forecast

RECRUITING CONFESSIONAL
When breathalyzers don't lie (but contractors do)

Recruiting Confessional A weekly series featuring anonymous stories from recruiting and staffing professionals. Submit yours here.

The Setup: I run a recruitment agency in a niche tech sector. Recently sourced and submitted top-tier candidate "Jane" who wasn't on the client's do-not-contact list.

The Disaster: Client replied saying she knows Jane and "had planned to contact her directly." Claims recruiting Jane would feel like "stealing" from a friend (Jane's current boss) and it's not necessary to go through my agency.

The Escalation: I pushed back professionally, explaining I activated the candidate and validated her interest. Client doubled down: refuses to acknowledge the fee because of their "proximity" and drops a new rule: "Do not approach anyone I'm connected with on LinkedIn or have a photo with."

Gotcha…

Have a story? Submit it here

WEEKLY POLL

SHARE THE SIGNALS
3 people you should share these signals with:

1. Your sales director who keeps pitching generalist staffing in 2026

2. That healthcare recruiter friend who's about to have the best year ever

3. Your competitor still doing mini-layoffs thinking nobody notices