Big staffing stumbles through Q3

Signal Summary: The industry's giants just reported earnings that ranged from "meh" to "yikes," Bullhorn's offering the Fed a lifeline with real staffing data, and 750,000 frustrated federal workers are suddenly open to better offers. Plus, when “Team Sports” became the dumbest hiring filter ever.

First time reading? Sign up to get weekly signals.

^{P.S. All cartoons were hand-drawn with an iPad Pro, Apple Pencil, and Procreate.}

HERE’S WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK ↓

SIGNAL 1
Big staffing's Q3 reality check

The scoreboard:

• Randstad revenue dropped 1.2% organically to €5.8 billion

• Robert Half fell 8% to $1.35 billion

• ASGN slipped 1.9% to $1.01 billion

Translation: the entire industry is treading water.

What's really happening:

• Randstad's permanent placement fees cratered 14% year-over-year

• Robert Half's operating margin collapsed from 4.1% to 1%

• ASGN beat earnings estimates, but investors still dumped the stock

The bright spot: Digital transformation is keeping lights on. Randstad's digital marketplaces now generate €4 billion annually (15% of revenue), while ASGN's IT consulting hit 63% of total revenues.

Signal → Strategy: Target clients of these struggling giants for competitive takeaways. Their margin pressure means service cuts are coming. Position your firm as the boutique alternative with actual attention to detail.

Go deeper: Links above

SIGNAL 2
Bullhorn becomes the Fed's new data dealer

Breaking: With the government shutdown blocking access to employment data, Bullhorn is offering up the SIA | Bullhorn Staffing Indicator, tracking 150,000+ temp workers weekly, as the Fed's economic crystal ball.

Why this matters:

• Staffing contracts 1-2 quarters before broader employment market downturns

• After 18 months of weakness, overall staffing hours just hit a 2025 high for 3 straight weeks

• Light industrial growth is offsetting sluggish professional sectors (tech, finance, legal)

Signal → Strategy: Reference Bullhorn Indicator data in your sales pitches and client reports. Position your firm as data-driven by citing the same metrics the Fed relies on.

Go deeper: Bullhorn Federal Reserve announcement

SIGNAL 3
750,000 federal workers, zero paychecks, infinite recruiting opportunities

The setup: Day 24 of the shutdown, 750,000 furloughed workers, 500,000+ missing their first full paycheck. Meanwhile, Dr. John Sullivan is calling this the recruiting opportunity of the decade.

What's available:

• Millions of federal workers with leading-edge technical skills, regulatory expertise, and powerful contacts

• 2.3 million potential job seekers whose training and experience are current (not outdated like typical unemployed candidates)

• Scientists, engineers, IT staff, and technical specialists who've survived multiple shutdowns and are finally fed up

Signal → Strategy: Launch targeted "Federal Talent Initiative" campaigns now before competitors wake up. Focus on technical roles as they adapt faster to corporate environments and bring regulatory knowledge that's gold for government contractors.

Go deeper: Dr. John Sullivan's shutdown recruiting strategy

RECRUITING CONFESSIONAL
When "Team Sports" Became the Dumbest Hiring Filter Ever

Recruiting Confessional A weekly series featuring anonymous stories from recruiting and staffing professionals. Submit yours here.

The Setup: Executive team member had a brilliant theory: candidates who played team sports should go to the top of the resume pile because athletics equals business success.

The Awkward Moment: After hearing this genius insight for the hundredth time, I finally said what everyone was thinking: "I've never played team sports, and I am your peer."

Have a story? Submit it here

WEEKLY POLL

SHARE THE SIGNALS
3 people you should share these signals with:

1. Your tech-skeptic partner who thinks digital transformation is optional

2. Your sales director who needs ammunition for competitive takeaways

3. That federal contractor friend who's about to lose half their workforce