Confidence is up. Nobody's celebrating.

Signal Summary: Staffing executives are feeling better than they have in four years, but "better" is doing a lot of work in that sentence. Industrial staffing just posted its best growth in years, and it has nothing to do with the warehouse jobs you're used to filling. Meanwhile the ASA index keeps quietly creeping toward 2024 levels like it's afraid to jinx itself. Plus, the interview worth a probation violation.

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HERE’S WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK ↓

SIGNAL 1
Staffing confidence hits a 4-year high (cautiously)

The scoop: SIA just launched a new Staffing Confidence Index. First reading: 128.7, the highest since August 2022. Executives are feeling good. Not 2021 good. Just good.

What's driving it:

• Net new orders up 45% over the past 3 months, best since April 2022

• Net bill rates up 24%, best since December 2022

• Net gross margins up 6%, a post-pandemic high

The catch: Half-year expectations only hit 132. Solid, not euphoric. One exec summed it up: the market is "slowly getting better, but by no means a strong market." Translation: nobody's popping champagne.

Signal → Strategy: Pull your stalled bill-rate conversations back out. With a net 24% of firms already winning increases, you have real leverage to push the accounts that have stonewalled renewals all year.

Go deeper: New SIA Staffing Confidence Index shows sentiment at 4-year high

SIGNAL 2
Reshoring and data centers are reviving industrial staffing, just not the way you think

The headline: Industrial staffing led every segment with 5% YoY revenue growth in April. But it's not warehouse volume coming back. It's reshoring and data center construction pulling skilled trades and engineers.

The numbers:

• 244,000 reshoring jobs announced in 2024, 88% in high-tech sectors needing controls engineers and electricians

• Construction needs 349,000 net new workers in 2026, jumping to 456,000 in 2027

• Electrical work alone is 45% to 70% of data center build costs

• Data center trades pay a 32% wage premium, averaging $81,800 a year

Meanwhile: Transportation and warehousing is down 92,000 jobs since its February 2025 peak. Same industry, two completely different markets.

Signal → Strategy: Stop competing for warehouse volume that isn't coming back. Build a bench of licensed electricians and controls engineers now, the credentialed workers pulling six figures who don't apply to job postings.

Go deeper: Reshoring and Data Centers Are Driving Industrial Staffing's Comeback

SIGNAL 3
The ASA index keeps climbing toward pre-slump levels

The scoop: The ASA Staffing Index has posted year-to-year gains nearly every month since last fall. April: up 5.3% YoY. May: up 4.8%, "approaching levels last seen in 2024," per ASA's chief economist. June's report, out this week, kept the streak alive.

Backing it up: Q1 2026 staffing employment fell just 4.6% year-to-year, the smallest Q1 decline since 2022. Sales dropped only 1.6% YoY, the narrowest gap since 2023.

The vibe: Not a boom. A slow, grinding climb out of a multi-year hole. But a climb.

Signal → Strategy: Staff up your own recruiting team before the rebound fully lands. Firms that hired ahead of past surges filled orders fast. Firms that waited spent a year playing catch-up.

Go deeper: Staffing Index Improves in June

RECRUITING CONFESSIONAL
The interview worth a probation violation

Recruiting Confessional A weekly series featuring anonymous stories from recruiting and staffing professionals. Submit yours here.

The Setup: Candidate had an interview that required driving across the Maryland state line.

The Unexpected Mention: Partway through, he mentioned that crossing into Maryland technically violated his probation. He'd thought it over and decided the job was worth the risk of getting picked up.

Have a story? Submit it here

WEEKLY POLL

SHARE THE SIGNALS
3 people you should share these signals with:

1. Your account rep who's been "waiting for the right time" to push a bill rate increase

2. Whoever at your firm still thinks warehouse staffing is coming back

3. The recruiter who interviews candidates without asking how they got there