Job growth beat the odds (barely)

Signal Summary: Job growth surprised everyone in June but it's fake news from teacher math. CEOs are practically giddy about post-tariff life while Trump's $3.3 trillion bill just created staffing winners and losers. Plus, one candidate proved that confidence without self-awareness is a beautiful disaster.

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HERE’S WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK ↓

SIGNAL 1
June jobs report: When math lies beautifully

The headline: 147,000 jobs added, unemployment down to 4.1%. Sounds fantastic until you peek behind the curtain.

The disconnect: Strip out government jobs and private payrolls only gained 74,000. Translation: the job market is cooling faster than your enthusiasm for Monday morning meetings.

What's really happening:

• Teacher hiring created a 40,000-job mirage in June

• Private sector growth dropped to 115,000 three-month average

• Only healthcare and restaurants are still hiring aggressively

• Manufacturing continues its slow-motion funeral march

Signal → Strategy: Target healthcare clients now while demand peaks. Trump's Medicaid cuts won't hit until 2026, giving you 18 months to maximize current growth.

Go deeper: Recruitonomics June Jobs Report

SIGNAL 2
CEOs drinking the optimism Kool-Aid

Breaking: CEO confidence is spiking to 2025 highs, with 58% betting on growth. Apparently, surviving tariff chaos makes executives feel invincible.

Why they're giddy:

• Business conditions rated 5.6/10, up from March's tariff-induced panic

• Only 19% expect a downturn (lowest since 2021)

• 42% plan to hire vs. 60% in January (translation: still cautious)

The reality: CEOs love the idea of post-tariff stability, but actual hiring plans remain stuck in neutral. They're optimistic, not delusional.

Signal → Strategy: Position contract staffing as "hiring insurance" for optimistic-but-cautious CEOs testing growth waters without permanent commitments.

Go deeper: Chief Executive CEO Confidence Index

SIGNAL 3
Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" just rewrote staffing's playbook

Breaking: The $3.3 trillion megabill passed July 4th with permanent corporate tax cuts and $150 billion for immigration enforcement. Healthcare staffing just got a reality check.

The good news:

• Corporate tax rates locked in permanently (more cash for hiring)

• $150B defense spending boost (contractors, rejoice)

• $300B total new spending creates immediate staffing opportunities

The healthcare hangover:

• 11.8 million Americans losing Medicaid coverage

• Nearly $1 trillion in Medicaid cuts over time

• Rural hospitals facing potential closures

Signal → Strategy: Build dual pipelines now - maximize healthcare revenue today while cultivating defense/immigration contacts for 2026+ when Medicaid cuts bite.

Go deeper: Staffing Industry Analysts Bill Analysis

RECRUITING CONFESSIONAL
When "Really F*cking Smart" Meets Reality

Recruiting Confessional A weekly series featuring anonymous stories from recruiting and staffing professionals. Submit yours here.

The Setup: Candidate walks in for what should have been a routine conversation about an open position.

The Disaster: I asked why he wanted the job. His response: "Well I really just wanted something super easy where I could kind of do nothing. I mean you guys don't look like you work very hard. Also there are some hot chicks that work here and I'd like to get to know them." When I asked what made him think the job was easy, he replied with complete confidence: "The thing is, I'm really f*cking smart."

The Aftermath: I literally looked around to see if I was on some candid camera show. Spoiler alert: I wasn't.

The Lesson: Sometimes candidates tell you exactly who they are in the first five minutes. Believe them. Also, "I'm really smart" loses all credibility when preceded by everything else this guy said.

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SHARE THE SIGNALS
3 people you should share these signals with:

1. The healthcare recruiter who complains there are no jobs to fill

2. That CEO pal high on optimism but too cheap to hire full-time

3. Your defense contractor buddy about to swim in a pool of government gold