Q3 Earnings: Specialists up, generalists down...

Signal Summary: Specialty staffing firms are capturing growth while traditional temp agencies bleed out. Meanwhile, Bullhorn just positioned itself as the Federal Reserve's new best friend, and companies are learning the hard way that buying AI doesn't mean anyone will actually use it. Plus, when identity fraud meets team panel interviews.

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^{PS - I draw all images with an iPad Pro, Apple Pencil, and Procreate.}

HERE’S WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK ↓

SIGNAL 1
Q3 Earnings Summary

The summary:

• AMN Healthcare revenue hit $634M, down 8% year-over-year but beating guidance. Winter travel nursing orders are up year-over-year, signaling strong Q4 volume ahead.

• Kelly Services revenue dropped 9.9% to $935M, with a brutal $102M goodwill impairment charge. Underlying revenue only down 2% after stripping out federal contract losses.

• Adecco Group revenue edged up 3.4% organically to €5.8B, capturing massive market share gains (+375 basis points).

• Heidrick & Struggles crushed expectations with revenue up 15.9% to $322.8M. Executive search revenue grew 17%, and they're going private for $59/share.

• TrueBlue revenue climbed 13% to $431M. Energy sector revenue more than doubled, and their commercial driver business hit five consecutive quarters of double-digit growth.

Signal → Strategy: Focus sales efforts on specialized verticals (healthcare, executive search, skilled trades, energy) where demand remains strong and margins hold. Exit or minimize exposure to commoditized general staffing before margins compress further.

Go Deeper: Links above

SIGNAL 2
Bullhorn Just Became The Federal Reserve's Favorite Data Source

Breaking: 

Bullhorn launched Bullhorn Insights, consolidating their SIA | Bullhorn Staffing Indicator, GRID reports, and two new data products into one platform. They're tracking 150,000+ workers weekly and millions of job openings through their 10,000+ customer base.

The timing is perfect:

• Federal Reserve officials are struggling to access employment data due to the government shutdown and reduced private sector data sharing. Bullhorn positioned its Staffing Indicator as the solution for real-time labor market insights.

Signal → Strategy: Evaluate whether your current ATS/CRM provider offers comparable market intelligence. Consider Bullhorn's data advantage when making tech stack decisions, as proprietary market insights are becoming table stakes for competitive positioning in 2025.

Go deeper: Bullhorn Insights

SIGNAL 3
93% of Companies Are Wasting Their AI Budgets

The problem: Deloitte surveyed 100 CXOs and found 93% are dumping AI investments into tech infrastructure while ignoring the people side. Result? Nobody's actually using the shiny new AI tools they bought.

What's actually blocking AI ROI:

• Leadership alignment issues (people don't know what they're supposed to do)

• Workforce isn't ready (nobody trained them)

• Work processes haven't been redesigned (trying to force AI into broken workflows)

The fix: Companies embracing work redesign are twice as likely to exceed their AI ROI expectations. "AI adoption without work redesign is like putting a jet engine on a horse-drawn carriage."

Signal → Strategy: Position consulting services around AI implementation and work redesign. Staffing firms with operational expertise can package change management, training, and process optimization alongside talent placement for AI initiatives. Charge premium rates to fix what IT departments break.

Go Deeper: Don’t Just Invest In Tech

RECRUITING CONFESSIONAL
When Identity Fraud Meets Team Panel Interviews

Recruiting confessional is a weekly series featuring the recruiting stories you're not supposed to tell publicly, shared anonymously. Got a story? Submit it here

The Setup: Had one candidate ace the initial interview with the hiring manager. Smooth talker, great responses, perfect fit on paper.

The Disaster: Different person showed up for the second-round team panel interview. Like, completely different human being. Same name, wildly different face. The kicker? The second interview was with a panel that included the hiring manager from round one. The client, fortunately, found it hilarious instead of blaming us.

Have a story? Submit it here

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SHARE THE SIGNALS
3 people you should share these signals with:

1. Your CEO who needs to see the specialty vs. commodity staffing split

2. That operations director still defending their “handsomely priced” legacy ATS

3. Your CHRO who thinks buying AI licenses equals AI transformation