Rate cut roulette

Signal Summary: Powell finally opened the door to rate cuts, the world's 100 biggest staffing firms’ worst performance in years, and why some recruiters crush it while others crash and burn. Plus: when a missed calendar invite turns into a corporate assassination attempt.

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HERE’S WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK ↓

SIGNAL 1
Powell cracks under pressure (but won't admit it)

The twist: Fed Chair Jerome Powell basically said "fine, we'll cut rates" at Jackson Hole while insisting it has nothing to do with Trump's daily Twitter tantrums.

What's really happening:

• Stocks jumped 600+ points after Powell hinted at September cuts

• "Downside risks to employment are rising" = Fed-speak for "job market's looking sketchy"

• Tariffs are "clearly visible" in pricing, but Powell's playing wait-and-see on long-term impact

Signal → Strategy: Pre-hire talent and upgrade tech infrastructure now before rate cuts trigger the hiring rush. Corporate projects frozen since 2023 will flood back when borrowing costs drop - be ready to scale fast.

Go deeper: Fed Chair Powell Jackson Hole Speech

SIGNAL 2
World's biggest staffing firms hit the skids

The numbers: Global staffing's big boys dropped 3% to $257 billion in 2024, but here's the plot twist - 34 firms on the list actually grew while the industry tanked 5%.

The survivors:

• Randstad stays king for 7th straight year ($23.05B) but can't stop the bleeding

• Top 3 firms (Randstad, Adecco, ManpowerGroup) control 10% of global market

• US firms dominate the list (40 of 100), but their home market contracted 10%

The disconnect: Half the global staffing revenue comes from just three countries (US, Japan, UK), creating massive vulnerability.

Signal → Strategy: Analyze the 34 growth firms for common patterns - likely healthcare, tech, or niche specializations. Model your service mix and geographic focus on these winners rather than copying the struggling majority.

Go deeper: SIA Largest Global Staffing Firms Report

SIGNAL 3
Top recruiters spill their secrets

The insight: Recruitment legend Greg Savage reveals why some recruiters are crushing it while others are getting crushed in the same brutal market.

What winners do differently:

• Become niche specialists instead of generalists (focus = higher fees)

• Ensure 30% of business comes from new clients annually (churn is real, folks)

• Run operations "like clockwork" with actual processes instead of "freewheeling hippie communes"

The kicker: Most agencies cut training when times get tough. Winners double down on skill development.

Signal → Strategy: Launch enablement programs now. Partner with specialists like DemandJen for cold email outreach to get the attention of clients and candidates. Win by upskilling when others downsize.

Go deeper: 10 Reasons Some Recruiters Do Better

RECRUITING CONFESSIONAL
When a missed calendar invite turns into a corporate hit job

Recruiting Confessional A weekly series featuring anonymous stories from recruiting and staffing professionals. Submit yours here.

The Setup: Simple mistake - forgot to send a candidate a calendar invite for our scheduled interview. Happens to everyone, right?

The Disaster: Before I could reach out and apologize, she called me screaming. Not only was she convinced this was intentional sabotage, but she threatened to get me fired by contacting my supervisor and CEO.

This unhinged candidate did her homework. Found emails for our entire C-suite - CEO, founder, practice managers, the works. Sent a scathing manifesto demanding my immediate termination, complete with some rather colorful (and completely inappropriate) names to describe yours truly.

The Aftermath: Management sided with sanity over psycho. We scrubbed her from our database faster than she could spell "defamation lawsuit."

Have a story? Submit it here

WEEKLY POLL

SHARE THE SIGNALS
3 people you should share these signals with:

1. That Fed-watching economist who pretends to understand Powell's cryptic messages

2. Your competitor who's still cutting training budgets while you're investing in growth

3. That recruiter who blames "the market" for everything instead of looking in the mirror