Staffing bounces back (barely)

Signal Summary: After three brutal years, staffing revenue finally turns positive with a microscopic 1% bump. Meanwhile, recruiters need AI fluency yesterday, and there's a talent-stealing strategy hiding in plain sight that could devastate your competitors. Plus, when “Anything Else?” gets real.

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^{P.S. I draw all images with an iPad Pro, Apple Pencil, and Procreate.}

HERE’S WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK ↓

SIGNAL 1
Staffing industry crawls out of its hole

The bleeding stopped. Barely.

The turnaround: After falling 10% in 2024, staffing revenue is projected to grow 1% in 2025: the first net positive year since 2022's record high. Translation: the worst is over, but nobody's popping champagne.

The damage report:

• Temp jobs down 640,000 from March 2022 peak

• Travel nurse revenue collapsed 59.7% since 2022

• Only locum tenens and education saw growth (up 34.6% and 23.1%)

The 2026 outlook: Industry-wide growth of 3% expected across all segments, including healthcare finally recovering after its bloodbath.

Signal → Strategy: Consider focusing your recruitment efforts on locum tenens and education - the only segments that stayed profitable during the downturn. These clients have cash and momentum.

Go deeper: SIA US Staffing Industry Forecast

SIGNAL 2
Recruiter 2.0 skills (or extinction)

AI fluency isn't optional anymore, it's survival.

The evolution: Traditional recruiting skills aren't dead, but they're worthless without a tech foundation. The winning combo: AI literacy + commercial acumen + strategic thinking layered on top of relationship-building.

Critical upgrades needed:

• AI automation for admin tasks and market mapping

• Deep market intelligence (act like analysts, not CV pushers)

• Skills-first recruiting over pedigree worship

• Digital brand building (candidates research recruiters now)

Reality check: Recruiters who use AI will replace those who don't. It's that simple.

Signal → Strategy: Audit your team's AI capabilities immediately. Invest in formal AI training programs before competitors poach your best people who already figured this out on their own. The gap between AI-fluent and AI-ignorant recruiters will be brutal.

Go deeper: Recruitment Juice - Recruiter Skills 2.0

SIGNAL 3
The talent-stealing strategy hiding in plain sight

Competitor Talent Mapping could destroy your rivals, but nobody's using it.

The concept: Track your competitors' best employees for months before you need them. Build relationships, assess growth, identify leaders, then poach them when openings hit. NFL and MLB do this routinely. Agency recruiting? Crickets.

Why it works:

• Pre-assessed targets mean fewer hiring failures

• Directly weakens competitors while strengthening you

• Tracking 3-4 dozen key people in critical roles takes minimal time

• Top hires refer 3+ former colleagues after joining

The kicker: You'll be the only firm in your market actually doing this, giving you an unfair competitive advantage that executives will notice.

Signal → Strategy: Start mapping your top 3 competitors' critical roles today using LinkedIn. Assign team members to build non-recruiting relationships with targets. When you need senior talent fast, you'll already know who to call.

Go deeper: Dr. John Sullivan - Competitor Talent Mapping

RECRUITING CONFESSIONAL
When "Anything Else?" Gets Real

Recruiting Confessional: A weekly series featuring anonymous stories from recruiting and staffing professionals. Submit yours here.

The Setup: Three different interviews, same mistake; saving critical information for the very end when asked "anything else we should know?"

The Bombs Dropped:

Candidate #1: "Oh yeah, I'm under investigation for murder, so my schedule might be complicated."

Candidate #2: "By the way, I tested positive for Tuberculosis."

Candidate #3 (for customer service): "How do I handle stress? I get explosive and angry."

Wonder if they thought they could slip it by me by waiting ‘til the end?

Have a story? Submit it here

WEEKLY POLL

SHARE THE SIGNALS
3 people you should share these signals with:

1. Your agency owner still wondering when "normal" will return

2. Your training director who hasn't updated curriculum since 2019

3. That recruiter who keeps losing top candidates to the same competitor