Staffing M&A stuck on repeat

Signal Summary: Staffing M&A just ran a rerun of last year, and private equity left before the credits. Meanwhile, candidates say the AI interviewer did as good a job as you, and Big Tech is fighting a six-figure visa fee. Plus, a cold call that came straight out of a horror movie.

First time reading? Sign up to get weekly signals.

^{All images hand-drawn with an iPad Pro, Apple Pencil, and Procreate.}

HERE’S WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK ↓

SIGNAL 1
Staffing M&A is stuck on repeat (healthcare's still prom king)

The rerun: Staffing M&A in 2025 was a carbon copy of 2024. 93 deals both years, way down from the 139-deal frenzy of 2022.

Who's getting courted:

• Healthcare led with 26% of acquired firms

• Search came next at 21%

• Industrial and IT tied at 13% each

The twist: Private equity quietly left the party. 92% of buyers were private companies. PE fell from 16% of buyers in 2024 to just 4%.

Translation: Your next acquirer is probably the competitor you've been trash-talking at conferences.

Signal → Strategy: Target the healthcare niches buyers keep chasing, like locum tenens and school nursing. Then clean up client concentration and margins, because strategic buyers pay for profit, not pitch decks.

Go deeper: SIA: Staffing M&A Stayed Flat in 2025

SIGNAL 2
Candidates to recruiters: the robot interviewed better

The plot twist: 92% of candidates interviewed by an AI voice agent rated it as good as or better than a live recruiter. Ouch.

The numbers:

• 69% have encountered AI through their staffing firm, and 81% liked it

• 93% with a positive AI experience would work with that firm again

• 65% say recruiting AI beats the AI in their everyday lives (take that, autocorrect)

The catch: Humans still matter. 91% of candidates who hear from their recruiter weekly would keep working with them.

Translation: AI handles the screen. You handle the relationship. Skip both, and you get ghosted.

Signal → Strategy: Find where candidates wait longest and put AI there first: screening calls, application responses, job matching. Then reassign the freed recruiter hours to weekly check-ins with your placed contractors.

Go deeper: Bullhorn 2026 GRID Talent Trends Report

SIGNAL 3
Big Tech vs. the $103K visa tax

The showdown: TechNet, whose members include Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, OpenAI, and Anthropic, filed opposition to the DHS proposal for a $103,265 fee on cap-subject H-1B petitions.

What's on the table:

• Applies to cap-subject petitions, including those eligible for the advanced-degree exemption

• DHS estimates it could raise about $8.8 billion a year

• Separate from the administration's other $100,000 H-1B payment requirement

The target on your back: The administration argues IT staffing and outsourcing firms in particular used the program to hire lower-paid foreign workers over qualified Americans. Yes, you.

Signal → Strategy: Call IT clients leaning on cap-subject H-1B hires this week. Pitch domestic contract and contract-to-hire benches for AI and engineering roles before a $103K invoice hits their budget.

Go deeper: Yahoo: Tech Giants Fight Trump's $103K H-1B Fee

RECRUITING CONFESSIONAL
The Candidate Is Lost in the Forest

Recruiting Confessional A weekly series featuring anonymous stories from recruiting and staffing professionals. Submit yours here.

The Setup: Last cold calls of the day, one foot out the door. Someone finally picks up.

The Twist: No hello. Just heavy breathing. I ask for the candidate, and the breathing gets louder. Then a whisper: the candidate is lost, nobody can find him, he's lost in the forest, and I should stop calling for him and hang up.

Have a story? Submit it here

WEEKLY POLL

SHARE THE SIGNALS
3 people you should share these signals with:

1. The staffing owner who says "I'd never sell" every quarter

2. The recruiter who swears candidates prefer a human

3. Your IT division leader with a lot of H-1B contractors